Is the U.S. third in gun violence because of five cities? Data doesn’t support that claim

After a May mass shooting at a shopping mall in Allen, Texas, a comedian raised a familiar claim about gun violence in the U.S. 

Bryan Callen, a podcast host, said that the U.S. is No. 3 among 193 countries in gun violence, but if not including "the five cities with the most gun violence" — which he named as Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and St. Louis — it would significantly change the rank.

"If you were to take them out of the equation, we would not be the third, we would be the 189th. That’s pretty significant," Callen said.

A Feb. 1 Instagram video reshared Callen’s comments, first made on a May 2023 podcast episode. 

(Screenshot from Instagram)

The Instagram video was flagged as part of Meta’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram.)

The 193 countries that Callan mentions match the number of United Nations member states. We found no worldwide gun violence ranking with that number of countries.

The claim is similar to a meme that has been circulating since at least 2015 that we rated Pants on Fire! 

Subtracting the total number of firearm homicides across the five cities mentioned would reduce the 2022 U.S. gun homicide rate from 5.0 deaths per 100,000 people to 4.5 per 100,000. That means it wouldn’t reduce the rate enough for the U.S. to be on the lowest end of a global gun violence ranking.

PolitiFact contacted Callen for comment but did not hear back.

There are many ways to measure gun violence rates across countries, so the U.S. ranking varies. Most criminologists use the number of shootings-per-100,000-people metric to account for differences in population size.

The 2019 Global Burden Disease study includes the most recent and complete worldwide data on gun violence rates, and the number of countries and territories it includes is most similar to the number in Callen’s claim. In the study of 204 countries and territories, the U.S. ranked third for overall number of deaths caused by physical violence by firearm, behind Brazil and Mexico. When filtering by the rate per 100,000 people, the U.S. ranked 32nd.

In the 2019 study, the U.S. gun homicide rate was 3.96 deaths per 100,000 people. Three years later, in 2022, when the COVID-19 pandemic had driven up violent crimes, including homicides, the FBI reported that the U.S. gun homicide rate was 5.0 deaths per 100,000. 

If subtracting gun homicides in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and St. Louis from the 2022 data, the U.S. gun homicide rate would decrease to 4.5 deaths per 100,000 people. 

Gun homicide data for 2022 for all countries is not yet available. But based on 2022 data about 43 countries collected by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime — which did not include the U.S. —  a U.S. gun homicide rate of 4.5 per 100,000 people would put the country in 13th place, higher than 31 other countries, if it were included. That means the U.S. would not rank at the very bottom of a global list, as the Instagram post claims. 

Another dataset supports that conclusion. A 2021 report by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations said the U.S. ranked seventh out of 65 high-income countries and territories for the rate of firearm homicides per 100,000 people.

By comparison, other high-income countries have extremely low gun homicide rates per 100,000 people, including Singapore (0.01), Korea (0.02) and the United Kingdom (0.04). The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations report shows that all but 14 of the 65 high-income countries have firearm homicide rates lower than 1.0.

"Plenty of researchers have parsed the data and concluded that the U.S. homicide rate is a gross outlier among high-income countries and even much poorer countries and this shows up overwhelmingly in firearm homicide rates," Daniel Webster, distinguished research scholar for the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, wrote in an email to PolitiFact.

Even among datasets from the same year, there are differences. The 2019 Global Burden of Disease study estimated 13,001 deaths in the U.S. from physical violence by firearm, and the FBI reported 10,258 firearm homicides the same year. The FBI figures come from crime data voluntarily reported by participating law enforcement agencies nationwide, and the Global Burden of Disease figures come from more than 280,000 data sources including hospitals, governments, surveys and other worldwide databases. 

Everytown for Gun Safety, a gun control advocacy group, analyzed the FBI’s 2022 gun violence data and found that 20 cities, including the five mentioned in the Instagram post, accounted for 50% of U.S. gun homicides. 

The FBI reported 16,800 fatal gun homicides in the U.S. in 2022, which translates to a national rate of 5.0 deaths per 100,000 people. 

The number of firearm homicides in those five cities totaled 1,816 in 2022. Subtracting that total from the overall count would lower the national firearm homicide rate from 5.0 deaths per 100,000 people to 4.5 per 100,000 people.

Each of the five cities listed in the Instagram video had firearm homicide rates higher than the national rate:

• St. Louis: 66.7 per 100,000 people (highest rate among more than 500 U.S. cities)

• Detroit: 44 per 100,000 (fourth highest rate)

• Philadelphia: 30.8 per 100,000 (13th highest rate)

• Chicago: 19.7 per 100,000 (27th highest rate)

• Los Angeles: 7.7 per 100,000 (134th highest rate)

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  stated on January 21, 2019 in a post on Facebook

  Says U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said "owning guns IS NOT a right, if it were a right it would be in the Constitution."

  

In the Instagram video, Callan said the five cities he cites have "the strictest gun controls." The best available data is state level rather than city level, and it shows that two of the five cities are in states with looser gun restrictions. 

Everytown ranks states’ gun law strength by assigning points based on policies’ impact. States get more points for what Everytown considers to be foundational laws, including those requiring background checks and/or purchase permits; concealed carry permits; secure storage or child access prevention; "extreme risk" or laws limiting access to guns for people in crisis; and for having no "shoot first" laws, also called "stand your ground." 

Everytown ranked all states, with No. 1 having the toughest gun restrictions. Here’s how the states ranked where the five cities named in the Instagram video are located:

• California (ranked first): Five of five foundational laws.

• Illinois (ranked third): Five of five foundational laws.

• Pennsylvania (ranked 17th): Two of five foundational laws.

• Michigan (ranked 20th): Four of five foundational laws.

• Missouri (ranked 38th out of 50): Zero foundational laws.

Everytown’s analysis found that Illinois is bordered by states with much weaker gun laws, such as Indiana, and that many guns recovered in Illinois were purchased out of state.

"We could also point to New York, which has even tighter gun (regulations) and a gun homicide rate less than the national average," said Philip Cook, Duke University public policy studies professor.

An Instagram post claimed that if you removed gun-related homicides in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and St. Louis, the U.S. would rank 189th out of 193 countries in gun violence.

Based on 2022 FBI data, removing the firearm homicides from those five cities would decrease the U.S. firearm homicide rate from 5.0 deaths per 100,000 people to 4.5 per 100,000. 

There is no complete global gun homicide data for 2022 yet, but based on 2022 data from 43 countries — which did not include the U.S. — a U.S. rate of 4.5 deaths per 100,000 people would put the U.S. in 13th place, higher than 31 other countries, if it were included. That means the U.S. would not rank at the very bottom of a global list. 

A 2021 report also showed the U.S. ranked seventh out of 65 high-income countries and territories for the rate of firearm homicides per 100,000 people. The countries at the bottom of the list have extremely low gun homicide rates, including Singapore (0.01), Korea (0.02) and the United Kingdom (0.04).

The burden of proof is on the speaker, and the available evidence does not support this claim.

We rate it False.

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