In mid-July, President Joe Biden's vow to put the country on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 looked to be beyond reach. Congress held the key to funding the steps needed to stave off the worst effects of climate change, and every legislative effort had stalled.

In a 50-50 Senate, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin was the most prominent holdout, and without him, nothing could move.

That changed July 27, when Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York announced they had a deal. On Aug. 7, the measure passed in the Senate.

The package they worked out would spend $369 billion over 10 years. It includes $260 billion in clean-energy tax credits to boost investment in solar, wind, hydropower and other forms of renewable energy. For households, it offers consumer rebates to help cover the cost of installing heat pumps and solar panels. Lower- and middle-income households can claim a $4,000 tax credit to buy used electric vehicles. There are over $20 billion to support agriculture practices that release less carbon into the air.

The climate change elements in the Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act drew broad support among groups concerned about climate change. 

The World Resources Institute called it "transformational." The Sierra Club said it marked "a new beginning for the global effort to avoid climate chaos." Like many advocacy groups, Greenpeace criticized the benefits to fossil fuel industries in the bill, but nevertheless said it was "the most significant investment in renewable energy in American history."

More significant than praise, independent researchers said that taken together, by 2030, the legislation's steps would cut greenhouse gas emission by about 40% below emissions levels in 2005. Biden set a goal of reducing emissions to 50 to 52% below the 2005 benchmark by 2030 as part of the U.S. pledge under the Paris Climate Agreement.

The bill "does about two-thirds of the remaining work needed to close the gap between current policy and the nation's 2030 climate goal," said Princeton University's Zero Lab.

The private energy research consultants at the Rhodium Group estimated reductions in from 31% to 44%.

"It doesn't take us all the way there, but with added EPA regulations and state, local and private action, the 50 to 52% reduction by 2030 is possible using existing technology, or technology that seems around the corner," said Michael Gerrard, director of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

Here's the thing: For the U.S. to reach the net-zero target — the point at which the release and capture of greenhouse gases are in balance — it has to first hit the 2030 goal.

Greg Alvarez, a spokesman for the research group Energy Innovation, said the Inflation Reduction Act puts the country within "shouting distance" of the 2030 mark.

"So in that sense at least, hitting our 2030 mark puts us on the right path," Alvarez said.

Gerrard cautioned that getting all the way to net-zero is a heavy lift.

"Achieving the 2050 target probably requires new technologies that are now still in very early stages," Gerrard said. "Such as hydrogen from zero-carbon sources, small modular nuclear or fusion, large-scale carbon capture and zero-carbon trucks, ships and aircraft."

Gerrard along with many other researchers say America has the "possibility but not the assurance of meeting net zero by 2050."

Biden didn't guarantee that the country would reach net-zero by 2050. He said only that he would put it on the path.

With final passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, that seems to be in place. On that basis, we rate this a Promise Kept.

President Joe Biden's most sweeping climate change promise would produce an America where the release and capture of greenhouse gases are in balance. Whatever carbon got into the air would be offset by natural and man-made carbon capture.

"I will make massive, urgent investments at home that put the United States on track to have a clean energy economy with net-zero emissions by 2050," Biden wrote in March 2020.

At the White House, Biden signed executive orders to move the country in that direction and "supercharge our administration's ambitious plan to confront the existential threat of climate change."

"We can't wait any longer," Biden said Jan. 27.

Biden put a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on federal land. He also ordered federal agencies to buy zero-emission vehicles that are made in the U.S., and, where possible, to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies. He created a new White House office to keep climate change part of every department's activities, and he tied all of these efforts to creating millions of jobs.

Coming on top of his moves on his first day in office, Biden has laid the groundwork to move the country toward net-zero emissions. But experts caution that Biden will need Congress to reach that goal.

Biden's executive actions put a number of regulatory steps in motion.

He started the paperwork to bring the U.S. back into the Paris Climate Agreement.

Departments and agencies began drafting rules to cut methane gas escaping from oil and natural gas operations. The administration re-started discussions to set new fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks. His moves included making industry more energy efficient and putting the brakes on drilling and pipeline projects.

Taken together, Eric Larson, senior research engineer at Princeton University's Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, said these actions are a downpayment on meeting the net-zero goal.

"There is lots of work ahead still, but Biden's initiatives do get the country heading in the right direction," Larson said.

Biden's moves highlight the limits of what he can do on his own.

"Getting to net zero by 2050 will be very challenging, and most people doubt that it will be possible without more authority from Congress," said Michael Gerrard, director of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a policy group that brings together researchers, industry, and policy makers at all levels, identified some key elements that only lawmakers could deliver.

High on the group's list is identifying some way to put a price on carbon. There are several options, such as a tax on each pound or other unit of carbon. Or, the nation could build a cap-and-trade system that allows companies to buy and sell the right to put carbon into the air. 

The idea has many backers. In 2018, an economist won a Nobel Prize for showing countries how to think about doing this.

That hardly makes it popular.

Carbon pricing "remains one of the heaviest political lifts anywhere in the world," wrote University of Michigan policy professor Barry Rabe. Fossil fuel-producing states see it as a direct threat. Fear of paying more for gas and power would touch every business and household.

Beyond carbon pricing, researchers see Biden's energy efficiency moves, especially to make cars and light trucks more efficient, as central to cutting carbon releases. And while greater fuel efficiency helps, the center argues that moving toward electric or hydrogen powered cars is essential.

"Transportation is a classic example where a carbon price alone is insufficient," said Elliot Diringer, the center's executive vice president. "You need strong incentives for consumers to buy electric vehicles. And a big investment in the charging stations and other infrastructure to allow people to drive across the country."

If transportation goes more electric, it follows that the entire energy system would need to cut its carbon profile. Again, Congress would play a big role in providing the money to jumpstart new technology for producing and storing power.

All of this is on the carbon release side of the scale. On the other is getting carbon out of the atmosphere. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, human activity will still add carbon to the air. 

Biden's plans to preserve public land and manage forests protects natural ways to capture carbon. But Congress would need to go further.

"Mechanical systems to suck carbon out of the atmosphere and changes in how farmers use their land are important pieces of the puzzle," Diriger said.

The technology to both reduce emissions and capture carbon has a long way to go, and many policy analysts think that federal dollars will be key. The price tag is high. The center said in research and development alone, Washington should look to ramp up spending to at least $20 billion a year by 2030.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said House Democrats are ready to work with Biden to advance his goals. Getting enough votes in the Senate, where Democrats enjoy the slimmest of margins, will be a bigger challenge.

We rate this promise In the Works.