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Jon Greenberg
By Jon Greenberg August 12, 2022
Back to Put US on a course to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Historic climate investments put US on track toward net-zero emissions

In mid-July, President Joe Biden's vow to put the country on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 looked to be beyond reach. Congress held the key to funding the steps needed to stave off the worst effects of climate change, and every legislative effort had stalled.

In a 50-50 Senate, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin was the most prominent holdout, and without him, nothing could move.

That changed July 27, when Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York announced they had a deal. On Aug. 7, the measure passed in the Senate.

The package they worked out would spend $369 billion over 10 years. It includes $260 billion in clean-energy tax credits to boost investment in solar, wind, hydropower and other forms of renewable energy. For households, it offers consumer rebates to help cover the cost of installing heat pumps and solar panels. Lower- and middle-income households can claim a $4,000 tax credit to buy used electric vehicles. There are over $20 billion to support agriculture practices that release less carbon into the air.

The climate change elements in the Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act drew broad support among groups concerned about climate change. 

The World Resources Institute called it "transformational." The Sierra Club said it marked "a new beginning for the global effort to avoid climate chaos." Like many advocacy groups, Greenpeace criticized the benefits to fossil fuel industries in the bill, but nevertheless said it was "the most significant investment in renewable energy in American history."

More significant than praise, independent researchers said that taken together, by 2030, the legislation's steps would cut greenhouse gas emission by about 40% below emissions levels in 2005. Biden set a goal of reducing emissions to 50 to 52% below the 2005 benchmark by 2030 as part of the U.S. pledge under the Paris Climate Agreement.

The bill "does about two-thirds of the remaining work needed to close the gap between current policy and the nation's 2030 climate goal," said Princeton University's Zero Lab.

The private energy research consultants at the Rhodium Group estimated reductions in from 31% to 44%.

"It doesn't take us all the way there, but with added EPA regulations and state, local and private action, the 50 to 52% reduction by 2030 is possible using existing technology, or technology that seems around the corner," said Michael Gerrard, director of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

Here's the thing: For the U.S. to reach the net-zero target — the point at which the release and capture of greenhouse gases are in balance — it has to first hit the 2030 goal.

Greg Alvarez, a spokesman for the research group Energy Innovation, said the Inflation Reduction Act puts the country within "shouting distance" of the 2030 mark.

"So in that sense at least, hitting our 2030 mark puts us on the right path," Alvarez said.

Gerrard cautioned that getting all the way to net-zero is a heavy lift.

"Achieving the 2050 target probably requires new technologies that are now still in very early stages," Gerrard said. "Such as hydrogen from zero-carbon sources, small modular nuclear or fusion, large-scale carbon capture and zero-carbon trucks, ships and aircraft."

Gerrard along with many other researchers say America has the "possibility but not the assurance of meeting net zero by 2050."

Biden didn't guarantee that the country would reach net-zero by 2050. He said only that he would put it on the path.

With final passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, that seems to be in place. On that basis, we rate this a Promise Kept.

 

Our Sources

PolitiFact, Put US on a course to net-zero emissions by 2050

Senate Democrats, Joint Statement From Leader Schumer And Senator Manchin, July 27, 2022

Joint Economic Committee - Democrats, THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT WOULD FIGHT INFLATION AND LOWER COSTS FOR AMERICANS, Aug. 4, 2022

U.S. Congress, H.R.5376 - Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Aug. 8, 2022

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Great news for the climate and clean energy, but much work remains to be done, July 28, 2022

World Resources Institute, U.S. Senate Passes the Inflation Reduction Act, Advancing Historic Climate Legislation to the House of Representatives, Aug. 7, 2022

Sierra Club, The Inflation Reduction Act Buys Us Some Badly Needed Time, Aug. 10, 2022

BGR Group, What's in the "Inflation Reduction Act" and What's Next for its Consideration?, Aug. 9, 2022

Greenpeace, The Inflation Reduction Act: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, Aug. 9, 2022

Rhodium Group, A Congressional Climate Breakthrough, July 28, 2022

Princeton University Zero Lab, Reports, Aug. 4, 2022

Princeton University Zero Lab, Preliminary Report: The Climate and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Aug. 4, 2022

Email exchange,  Michael Gerrard, director, Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Aug. 8, 2022

Email exchange, Greg Alvarez, deputy communications director, Energy Innovation, Aud. 9, 2022