Candidate Joe Biden promised to "bring the vast majority of our troops home from Afghanistan" and "end the forever wars."

In his first press conference as president, Biden said the United States would not make a May 1 deadline for the departure of all American troops agreed to by President Donald Trump, but he said downsizing remains the goal.

"We've been meeting with our allies, those other nations that have NATO Allies who have troops in Afghanistan as well," Biden said March 25. "And if we leave, we're going to do so in a safe and orderly way."

Biden noted that there's a United Nations-led process underway on how to end the war. Asked if it was possible that U.S. troops might be there next year, Biden said, "I can't picture that being the case."

A total withdrawal of all troops would go beyond what Biden promised. He only committed to bringing home "the vast majority of our troops."

In 2017, the Pentagon stopped regular reporting on troop levels, but in January 2021 the department announced that 2,500 troops remained.

That's a far cry from the 100,000 at the peak under President Barack Obama, Brookings Institution defense fellow Michael O'Hanlon noted. 

O'Hanlon said the conflict between the Afghan government and the Taliban is at a precarious point, and Biden's caution reflects that.

"Why would he want to tell the Taliban we're leaving just as he is trying to get leverage over them at peace talks?" O'Hanlon said.

The departure of all U.S. troops, he said, would "condemn the country to a worsening civil war and eventual Taliban takeover in part of the country at least."

That is not a universal view.

For Christopher Preble at the Atlantic Council, Biden's words raise a red flag.

"The continued presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan does not move the country any closer to a durable political settlement that will end the civil war," Preble said. "Only the parties to that conflict can bring that war to a close."

For the moment, talks continue on reducing the American footprint in Afghanistan.

We rate this promise In the Works.