After the August 2021 downfall of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan and a chaotic exodus by U.S.-aligned Afghan forces, the war in Afghanistan is over, as President Joe Biden pledged it would as a candidate in 2020.
But Biden also promised to end war in the Middle East, and that includes a civil war in Yemen that has drawn in outside powers. There, the situation on the ground and in diplomatic rooms is far less settled.
In 2014, Houthi rebels with ties to Iran entered Sanaa, Yemen's capital, demanding a new government. Negotiations failed, and in January 2015, the rebels seized the presidential palace. Several Gulf nations, led by Saudi Arabia, diplomatically isolated the Houthis and waged airstrikes against them, backed by U.S. logistics and intelligence.
Since then, the fighting has continued intermittently, with substantial civilian suffering. A 2020 United Nations estimate concluded that 131,000 of 233,000 deaths in Yemen since 2015 have been caused at least indirectly by the war, and hunger and cholera remain widespread. UNICEF estimated that more than 2 million children are acutely malnourished.
During Biden's tenure, the direct violence in Yemen has been lower than at earlier points in the conflict, said Annelle Sheline, a research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
That's partly because of a six-month truce between the Houthi government in Sanaa and the Saudi-led coalition, which the U.N. mediated with U.S. diplomatic support. The truce officially expired in October, but the Saudis have not resumed airstrikes and the Houthis have not launched drones or missiles across the Saudi border. During this relative lull, talks are continuing, Sheline said.
Under Biden, the U.S. has reduced its provision of military supplies to Saudi Arabia, said F. Gregory Gause III, an international affairs professor at Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. There is also "no direct U.S. military personnel involvement in the fighting, as far as is publicly known," he said.
The U.S. has also supported diplomacy, sending its special envoy for Yemen, Tim Lenderking, to the region frequently to meet with representatives of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and sometimes the Houthis, Sheline said.
However, the U.S. continues to support military operations to a degree.
"The U.S. continues to share intelligence with the Saudis and Emiratis, and it continues to allow American military contractors to provide spare parts and maintenance to the Royal Saudi Air Force, without which two-thirds of the Saudis' planes would be unable to fly," Sheline said. "The U.S. has continued to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia, initiating over a billion dollars in new sales last year, although it claims that these weapons are only for defensive purposes."
The continuing cooperation with Saudi Arabia has pushed some members of Congress to support legislation to distance the U.S. even further from the conflict.
On Dec. 13, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., offered legislation to end U.S. support for the Saudis in Yemen. However, he stepped back after the Biden administration stated its strong opposition and after some senators who had backed previous legislative efforts on Yemen expressed concern about the scope of Sanders' new measure, Sheline said.
"There is a desire in Congress to extricate the U.S. from the conflict, and there is a reluctance by the administration to commit to such a resolution," said Michael A. Allen, a Boise State University political scientist.
After pulling back on his efforts, Sanders said the Biden administration "agreed to continue working with my office on ending the war in Yemen," adding that he would revive his push if negotiations with the White House faltered.
So, under Biden, the U.S. has reduced its military assistance to the conflict and has tried to negotiate a diplomatic solution, but it has not entirely cut off intelligence and military supplies to Saudi Arabia.
Even though the U.S. exit from Afghanistan would merit a Promise Kept on its own, that campaign pledge was also tied to other wars in the Middle East. Yemen's war continues, albeit at a lower intensity.
On balance, we continue to rate the promise In the Works.