When President Barack Obama promised the United States would lead the world in college graduates by 2020, it looked as though it might be attainable.

In 2013, when we last evaluated this promise, 43 percent of 25- to 34- year-olds had a college degree. As Obama increased Pell Grant funding and student loan regulations, it looked as though the United States might surpass South Korea, the leader in graduation rates. At the time, 64 percent of Koreans between the ages of 25 and 34 had a college degree.

The most accurate age bracket to compare recent graduate populations across countries is 25- to 34-year-olds, according to Kevin Carey, director of the education policy program at the New America Foundation. This is because the United States had a significantly higher population of college graduates in the 1960s and '70s than other countries. Those numbers are still reflected in the work force.  

With the most recent data from 2015, South Korea is still in the lead, as 69 percent of students have a college degree. The United States is currently at 49 percent in this cohort. The United States also trails Canada at 59 percent, Ireland at 52 percent, Japan at 50 percent and Luxembourg at 50 percent.

The rate of increase in both countries is comparable — 6 percent in Korea, and 7 percent in the United States. However, if both countries continue to increase at the same rate, it does not seem likely that the United States will surpass Korea by 2020.  There is no legislation currently in the works to make higher education more accessible, making it even less likely that this percentage will increase dramatically.

We therefore rate this Promise Broken.