We've been following President Barack Obama's campaign promise to close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay for more than five years now.
For most of Obama's time in office, Congress has made closing the prison difficult through various pieces of legislation, including bans on sending prisoners to particular countries and tough requirements for the government to meet in order to transfer detainees from the prison.
As a result, the prison stayed open, and progress towards closure ground to a halt. Because the Obameter measures outcomes and not intentions, we rated this Promise Broken.
Recently, however, Congress appears to be softening its opposition, and that's made the promise worth another look.
On Dec. 19, the Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act for 2014, which contained a provision making it easier for the government to transfer detainees to foreign countries. Before detainee transfers could take place under the old law, the defense secretary had to make detailed certifications about security and other issues in the host country, to assure Congress that released detainees would not engage in terrorist activities in their new country. Congress eased many of these restriction
"It was the first time Congress has voted to make it easier to close Guantanamo Bay, rather than make it harder," said Ken Gude, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress.
Just more than a week after the Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act, the Pentagon announced the transfer to Slovakia of the last three Uighur detainees held at Guantanamo Bay. At one time, the prison held 22 Uighurs -- members of an ethnic group from China -- and their detention was a major point of criticism from those lobbying for the closure of the prison. The Uighurs could have faced torture and execution if they were sent back to China.
A judge ordered the remaining Uighur prisoners to be released in 2008, but the government struggled to find a place to send the prisoners.
The transfer of the three remaining Uighur prisoners seems to be more of a "change in prioritization" than an outright change in policy from the Obama administration, said Zeke Johnson, director of Amnesty International's Security with Human Rights Campaign. He said the transfers had long been in the works, but the government was finally able to find a place to move the prisoners.
Overall, there are now 155 detainees being held at Guantanamo Bay, according to the Miami Herald, with 77 approved for transfer.
Making it clear his administration still holds closing the prison as a priority, President Obama recommitted to his promise during his January State of the Union address.
"With the Afghan war ending, this needs to be the year Congress lifts the remaining restrictions on detainee transfers and we close the prison at Guantanamo Bay," Obama said.
Obama didn't have to wait long after his State of the Union speech to see a potentially important move towards closing the prison. Last week, Ahmad al Darbi, a Saudi Arabian prisoner in custody since 2002, pled guilty to terrorism-related charges, which opened the door to his being released from the prison as soon as 2018.
In addition to marking an endpoint for his own detention, the plea deal compels Darbi to testify against other detainees.
The deal was a sign of progress toward closing the prison, said Cully Stimson, a senior legal fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for detainee affairs.
Stimson said he expects the Obama administration to continue working to improve relations with Yemen, the country from which many prisoners hail. Improved relations with the country could help speed up the rate of transfers for the remaining Yemeni prisoners, he said.
"I'm sure (Obama) wants Guantanamo Bay closed, it's whether he spends the political capital, and he's going to need to spend a lot, to get it done," Stimson said.
A less obvious impediment to Obama's plan to close the prison is the impending retirement of Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich. Levin was a major proponent of closing the prison, even at one point considering allowing prisoners to come to his home state to be tried if there was enough local support for the proposal.
Overall, it seems like Obama is making small but tangible progress on keeping this promise. However, a significant amount of work remains, and there are many restrictions on transfers still on the books, so we can only move the meter so far -- from Promise Broken to Stalled.