President Obama will be out of office long before the deadline arrives for his campaign promise to reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030. The question is, how far have we moved toward that goal now that it's more than six years since he made his pledge.
The short answer: not far at all.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, total petroleum consumption in the U.S. actually increased slightly from 2009 to 2014, the last year for which complete data are available. It went from 18.8 million barrels of oil per day to 19.0 million barrels daily. It had been as high as 20.8 million in 2005.
Similarly, the EIA is projecting that total petroleum energy consumption, which was 35.9 quadrillion British thermal units in 2013, will be up to 36.5 quadrillion Btus by 2030.
The numbers disguise the fact that oil is taking up a smaller proportion of the nation's total energy budget, because demand is increasing as population rises, and other energy sources are not coming online fast enough to crowd out oil and other petroleum products. So by 2030, it will account for 35.4 percent of energy consumed, down from 37 percent in 2013.
The administration has certainly been trying to bring consumption down, as we noted in our 2009 update below.
Although cap-and-trade legislation had no chance in Congress, the Obama administration tightened mileage requirements on light-duty vehicles, pushing the average to 35 miles per gallon. "That led to a huge decline in oil consumption," said Jessica Lubetsky, manager of the Pew Clean Energy Initiative. By 2025 those vehicles are supposed to be averaging 54 miles per gallon.
Tougher rules are expected this summer for moderate- and heavy-duty vehicles in hopes of further reducing consumption.
Net metering, the system for letting individual consumers feed home-grown energy into the power grid, is encouraging solar and wind projects. EIA says the number of net-metered customers has increased 70-fold since 2003.
Lubetsky said low oil prices are playing a key role in keeping consumption high. That means the United States isn't anywhere near achieving a 35 percent reduction.
"We've made progress toward this goal," White House spokesman Frank Benenati said in an email. "In part due to policies finalized under President Obama, such as increased fuel efficiency for cars and trucks, our projected oil consumption in 2030 is 17 percent lower than was projected seven years ago."
"Furthermore, we aren't finished yet," he said. "These projections do not include policies that have been proposed but not finalized, such as post-2018 fuel economy standards for heavy duty vehicles that we will finalize this year. The effect and magnitude of all of these policies will build over time."
But it's not clear it will be enough to fulfill Obama's promise. And since taking office, consumption has not declined and shows no signs of dropping at a time when demand for additional energy keeps rolling on. We rate this promise as Stalled.